Ozempic Weight Loss Is Having A Wider Impact Than You'd Imagine

The drug du jour making the news is Ozempic. The medicine was developed to help people with Type 2 diabetes curb hunger pangs by mimicking a natural hormone that tells the brain that the stomach is full and doesn’t need to eat anymore. And what happens when you eat less? You lose weight. No surprise but it’s hard to do.

So everyone else who isn’t diabetic (yet) and interested in losing the pounds without exercising are keen on Ozempic to rewire their brains and body functions. However Ozempic isn’t approved as a weight loss enabler. So Novo Nordisk, the drug's clever manufacturer, decided to create another GLP-1 (glucagon like peptide-1) drug with same active ingredient, semaglutide, under another brand name, Wegovy. 

Lots of people get sick because they are too heavy. Consumption of these drugs may not be so bad after all, if people get healthy. Here’s perhaps the unintended and unexpected part of this wonder drug story - weight loss is affecting other parts of the economy. Here’s a list:

Snacks
Sales of everything from soft drinks, chocolate, ice cream, chips and dips, biscuits etc are on a downward trend in the US because their loyal, larger customers are not craving snacks as much. In fact, grocery sales by GLP-1 drug takers are down 6% within the first 6 months of taking the appetite suppressant drugs. Processed snack sales are down 11% within the same consumer group. The big boys are taking this revenue impact seriously by creating new growth segments aimed at Ozempic and Wegovy consumers e.g Nestle launced a new line of high-fiber, protein-packed foods called Vital Pursuit specifically directed at this burgeoning American market. (I had to make the pun).

Restaurants
Still on food, restaurants might start to serve smaller portions to accommodate active weight watchers and their reduced needs. They’ll save on ingredient costs and prep time possibly. Prices may not come down though, haha. On a less rosy note, fewer people are eating out because they want better control over the food they eat and now choose to prepare instead. Though the same customers might spend more on alcohol and drinks because I think they’ll likely compensate on other gastronomic pleasures. Wonder if someone is going to put calorie counts against cocktails? Some of those are ripe with sugar. Low carb cocktails might become a thing. How do you make a drink with protein powder? 

Clothes
What do you when you can’t eat? You exercise! As folks lose weight, they are more motivated to hit the gym or take a run around the neighbourhood. And what do you need to enhance the sweat generation? The right clothes of course. Morgan Stanley has reported that GLP-1 takers have been buying more shoes and athleisure wear. Good news for sportwear brands and bad news for specialty shops stocking XL sizes. Some bespoke clothes manufacturers are reporting that their regular customers are ordering clothes one or two sizes smaller. Less material used, less resource cost, increased margins. 

Oil
This is going be interesting yet quite simple. Your car will need less petrol to run if you weigh less. Money saved! The airlines are celebrating too. Lighter passengers means less airplane fuel to fly planes. Also if they’re eating less, it might mean airline kitchens having less food to prepare. Will ticket prices come down?

Elevators
We’ve all seen the sign that reads “Capacity XX people (YYY kg)” in lifts. If the average weight of human beings comes down, then lift manufacturers could actually reduce material costs by not having to support higher loads at the same safety factor. In fact, this will affect the whole construction industry! Support less loading per square metre equates to dollars saved. 

Fitness trackers
With the ozempic working and with same motivation to exercise might spur a parallel inclination to track progress. Health tracking devices from the Apple Watch to Garmin have been around for a while now and they’ll become more popular as people start comparing their actual less heavy lives with digital reporting validating their achievements. 

Pets
Turns out there’s some work done with GLP-1 and pets! Some diabetic dogs and cats have been injected with these drugs with positive benefits. It might be some time before these studies are sufficiently validated for prescribed use but it seems like we’re gonna get there soon. Happier, healthier pets means happier owners. 

Hospitals and insurance
If people become healthier, will people need doctors as much? Will insurance companies need to pay out less for the same reason? 

Will umbrellas and sofas become smaller? Hmmm. 

Two Cents and 500 Words On Gladiator II

<Spoiler Alert> I caught Gladiator II and it was an interestingly edited film. It’s a looooong movie, over 2 hours but it certainly didn’t feel like it. There are no slow bits in the show. I think this was a conscious effort on the part of the director, producers and scriptwriters to actively keep the audiences sitting up in their seats, eyes open and brain hungry for what’s next. I think no scene is more than 2 mins long, even the ones with smart people talking. Could this be the result of social media-weary attention spans? 

I wished the show was just that a little more contemplative though. For example, the time after Hanno’s wife dies seems very disconnected from how Hanno feels about her. He’s even smiling and joking with his fellow inmates on the way to Rome. Granted he’s focused on revenge, Hanno comes across as very detached from his inner torment. The only bit I feel he truly brought forth any emotional display was when he screamed at Lucilla to leave, quite literally a “get ouuuuuut!”. He wasn’t very distraught when she got struck in the heart either. Such a brooder. 

Nonetheless, it’s a fun film. Love the giant Colloseum pool scene. It was amazingly epic, the floor of the stadium transformed from sandy beige to beachside Maldivian blue. But where did they keep the sharks though? I mean Rome is up to an hour by car to the sea so says Google, which means it would have taken the better part of a day to bring Jaws and friends to the arena 1800 years ago. In perpetual salty wetness no less. Also, there are some very quick scenes that’ll make you flinch in adrenaline spike - the sword throw from one of the twins to rile Acacius, the reveal of the Poet, Macrinus helping slice a head off, the arrow culling of Acacius’ henchmen (drop dead, pardon the pun, beautifully executed, also another pun). Loved that Pedro Pascal delivered his lines in what sounded like a Spanish man speaking English. Denzel might win Best Supporting Actor for this. 

There are some cheesy bits which surprised me - the ending with Lucius trying to placate both sides of the military. He sounds like the humbled winner of a closely-called election attempting to mend broken bridges in a mildly tense stand-off. (Perhaps a certain orange-tinged actor politician should apply some of that.) Also an Indian doctor who meets his wife from London? Come on! What kind of Oxford-educated Union Jack colonial set up is that? Also the final bit with hands over the wheat fields is a bit much of a throwback I think. 

Still a good show for the big screen! I suspect some newborns may be named Lucius, Verus, Aurelius, Marcus, Maximus, Meridius, Hanno, Ari (not Arishat well because of “shat”) and Lucilla in the next few months. Not Commodus because that sounds like toilet too much, and not Decimus because that’s too close to decimal. Maybe Ravi. 

Unimportant script hole - Google says Rome annexed Numidia in 43BC and 25BC. So any mention of Christians in the film is wrong. Also Marcus Aurelius died in 180CE, and that doesn’t sync with the actual Roman African conquests aforementioned. 

Old Chang Kee Is Making Money. Too Much Money?

I sent this to the press 4 days ago but they didn't publish it. 

"Recently, curry puff maker Old Chang Kee reported a 42% jump in profits for sales across the 6 months prior to 30 September. This is on the back of a 53% jump in the previous reporting cycle.

While this is great news for shareholders, we need to also factor in how price increases of their retail products have contributed to this extraordinary profitability. I recall their basic Curry O chicken curry puff cost $1.60 a couple of years ago and is now sold for $2 - a rise of 25%.

It is a tad incredulous that the company states that "inflationary pressures from the rising expenses of raw materials, labour and rental, and that manpower shortage remains challenging" when clearly the reported metrics show a different outcome.

Given the inflationary concerns Singapore residents have been going through post-Covid, it is concerning that local companies are riding on these price increases to help boost their profits at the expense of the tightened purse strings among ordinary folk."

Talking to friends, they've also expressed similar, seemingly ridiculous price hikes at Toast Box and Ya Kun, our favourite local places. A check online shows that the cheapest hot drink at Toast Box, a basic hot Kopi-O, is $3. A friend of mine told me his Ice Teh-O at Ya Kun cost him $4.20. 

At the same time, i also have friends who said there's nothing wrong with making a profit. They go "Buyer beware" as the customer has a choice in the matter. I agree but what happens to the overall retail environment is that the price hikes permeate. I would also classify coffee and tea a basic need in Singapore, maybe even on par with rice and cooking oil - items consumed at least once a day. 

When one vendor raises prices to "combat inflation and rising cost of goods", another will follow suit to create a new normal benchmark for similar goods sold in similar ways (local coffee in a mall setting for example). What this does then is cause a slow but steady rise in inflation across the board, which ultimately affects you and me. 

Not one company's problem but a country-level matter, how the small details ladder up to the big albeit gloomy picture. When basic needs become expensive, often consumers do not think of finding alternatives because that's how basic needs are ingrained in their purchase behaviour. Do the powers that be care?

Employers will face pressures to raise salaries as their staff start complaining their paychecks aren't enough to make ends meet the same way as before. I am wondering if Old Chang Kee, Ya Kun and Toast Box raised salaries alongside their price increases.

One friend said my photo would go up on the walls at Old Chang Kee outlets if the letter was published. I think I would be proud, curry puffs dismissed by principle.  

Angmoh Falls Down, No One Cares

I was walking home along Race Course Road on Sunday evening. It was a spontaneous decision to work off a massive lunch over the 3km it would take to get home. It was busy as expected, mostly with foreign workers out and about on their day off. As I made my way to the junction with Birch Road, I saw an older, stout Caucasian man lying slumped on the grass verge on the traffic island. His body was partly twisted, and a walking cane lay a metre away. I rushed towards him, asked if he was alright and proceeded to help him up. He had trouble righting himself, and he said his left leg was weak. After some effort, the gentleman managed to stand upright, with my hands providing support under his shoulders. He was disoriented but coherent. I wasn’t sure if he was inebriated but he could hold a conversation albeit at a subdued pace.

When I asked what happened, he explained that he had tripped, lost his balance and fell. When I asked if he lived nearby, he replied affirmatively but there was no one home to fetch him. I next asked if he was in pain or needed an ambulance. He insisted he merely wanted to get home, that he hated hospitals. As we slowly made our way towards where he lived, we engaged in rather amiable conversation. I introduced myself and he said his name was John, and that he was 63 years old. From his accent I had assumed he was a tourist from England but he explained he was a Singapore permanent resident for many years. He could even joke that I was as chatty as his ex-wife, and that his caretaker would be upset when she finds out about his predicament.

We trudged carefully towards one of the smaller lanes spreading in and out of Race Course Road while chatting. I kept firmly by his side to guide his slow sometimes wobbly steps along the pavement, making sure his footing was accurate and didn’t teeter off the edge. After accomplishing 30 metres or so, I could tell John was tiring as he began to lean off balance. I quickly got help from a pedestrian to bring a chair over from a nearby restaurant for John to take a needed recovery break. I also discovered John had a phone and via a call to his helper, I ascertained exactly where he was putting up - about 50m down the road.

During our breather, I spotted a few Certis Cisco personnel making their way towards us. They had high-visibility vests on while making their rounds monitoring the Little India crowds this weekend. As they came by, I requested if they could help me with supporting John to his nearby apartment. I have a couple of slipped discs at 50 years old and rendering assistance can often render me bedridden for a bit. The pseudo-cops were hesitant to help outright, and suggested that getting an ambulance was more appropriate. John declined, again repeating his plea to get home. The Certis Cisco staff present were soon joined by a couple more colleagues who popped out a passenger van that had stopped by the side of the road. From the conversation that ensued, I could sense the reluctance from these boys in blue at getting involved, that they had to get back to their regular duties instead. I breathed an internal sign of exasperation and told them we would figure ourselves out and the squad left.

I coaxed John up, and we continued to amble along the busy road. I had to make him lean on a pillar so that I could return the chair borrowed from a restaurant. I think John found it amusing. At some point, in front of the building called home, a couple of passers-by graciously helped to lift John a few steps up when he couldn’t bear his weight on one leg. I escorted him up to his apartment, stayed with him for about 10 minutes to make sure he was settled, and informed his caretaker that he was back safe and sound. 

I don’t know how long John was lying on the grass verge for, and am surprised no one else came to his aid. Singaporeans, come on! I’m also disappointed by the lack of reasonable assistance from the Certis Cisco staff. I understand that the situation was out of their regular scope of work. Nonetheless, it would have been decent if they could have rendered some help to bring John home - perhaps a quick ride in the passenger van to relieve an old person from having to struggle 50 metres on foot to his home.  With a burgeoning elderly population, there will be more situations like this for everyone to deal with, not just civil servants or medical staff. We’ll need kinder, decent residents to step up and play their part. 

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PS - I went back to visit John the next morning. The helper was there and she thanked me. She also rolled her eyes at John for going out unaccompanied, haha. Turns out John was lying on the grass for 10 minutes! Shame to all passers-by! He said he too proud to shout for help though. I told him his pride will kill him one day. There's more to this tale. And I'll probably start visiting this angmoh geriatric on Sundays. He's quite entertaining.