Who Would Want To Block The Suez?

So the Suez Canal was blocked a little while ago. Unintentionally. 

That got me thinking about who would want to block it on purpose. I gave a short response to this thought on Twitter to a post by someone I follow. I shall expand on it here. 

Disruptor 1 - Egyptian Islamists 

They’ve had a grudge against government and what better way to hold the country hostage than a disruption to 8% of world trade and a dent in the port fee coffers. That’s a possible loss to the more than USD$5 billion ships pay in fees annually to use to the man-made passage (1). Large money at stake - 1.5% of the country's GDP. 

Disruptor 2 - Port authorities along the Cape of Good Hope route

For the sake of conspiracy, I take the ‘who would benefit from a Suez block’ line of thinking. If the goods need to go, they’ve gotta go. The shipping route around Africa could use a kick in the pants, one that would add jobs and opportunities. So a schemer in any major port along this old skull (like 1800s old) southern route could be tempted to take advantage of a break in the Suez. 

Disruptor 3 - New Silk Road fans

If plans for the new Silk Road got underway for real, where mega long trains could ship good between East Asia and Europe cost-effectively, this would displace the need for large ships to set sail for the same purpose. It’s probably trickier to implement than it sounds. In any case, a halt to the Suez would first send nautical traffic down south around Africa first, while any increased momentum in an epic East-West railway service took a foothold and flourished. Once again, it would be about the numbers and speed of delivery. Apparently, a freight train can take only 18 days to get from Yiwu, 300km south of Shanghai, to London in 18 days. (2). A conventional seaborne freighter would take a month or so to make the trip. Well, well, well. 

Disruptor 4 - Anti globalists, perhaps

I’m sure there are people out there who have suffered because their jobs have been shipped to India, China or another country with a far cheaper source of labour. They might be angry at their ex-employers, their governments and the people who took their employment. They might seek some pleasure in the disruption of global trade via the Suez. The backlash could be aimed at countries like China, whose economy continues to burgeon at relatively remarkable rates. A prolonged break in their usual trade flow, with more expensive alternatives to follow, could elicit a celebration among these disruptors. 

Alright, it all now sounds like the basis of a movie with James Bond or Johnny English swooping in to save the day. I’m glad things have got back on their feet and I wish the Suez and Egyptians well. (Though this 2016 article doesn’t seem to portray them in a good light - https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160303-cheap-oil-is-taking-shipping-routes-back-to-the-1800s)

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal_Authority#Revenues

(1 plus) Suez fees calculator - https://www.wilhelmsen.com/tollcalculators/suez-toll-calculator/

(2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yiwu%E2%80%93London_railway_line

I Sit In Quiet After Really Good TV

Sometimes, after watching an emotionally gripping television programme, I would sit still in the quiet after. The TV off, lights on, gazing softly into the black screen, processing the feelings in the afterglow of excellent entertainment. Usually at that point, my eyes would be moist. Wet from taking it all in, the ups and downs, the roller-coaster of emotions the viewer is brought along and ultimately, how a great story should end. Perhaps also how from you suddenly imbibe the same realization as the protagonist. Whether it was a subdued victory, a simple yet vital act of courage, a letting go of a tumultuous past. It's unreal I know. I maybe breathing very slowly and suddenly take a deep inhale of oxygen while I close my eyes. I would hold them shut while I contemplated the sounds around me. The rise and fall of passing traffic, cicadas in the trees nearby, frogs rejoicing in the wet weather, the sharp scratch of a neighbour moving furniture against tile. All irritants to the bubble of feelings about to implode. My eyes would voluntarily open and I would start to bask in the stillness of my surroundings. Looking about slowly. Observing without intention, not thinking anything, not trying to move except for fingers and palms caressing the fabric of whatever I happened to be laying on. A meditation of sorts, though still recovering from the emotional torrent from minutes earlier. And usually these feelings do just slowly ebb away into the recesses of my imagined hyperaware state. 

One time though, I cried. As I walked away from my living room sofa towards my bedroom, I simply burst into tears, muttering 'Why did Jenny have to die?'. This happened after I watched Forrest Gump. It was a grave loss to Forrest and somehow it struck a fragile chord in me too. (I won't go further except to add that perhaps that outpouring of grief, I surmised later, may have been related to the death of my father some years earlier.)

Tonight I watched the last two episodes of Catch-22 on cable television. A six-parter based on Joseph Heller's wonderful book. I never remembered the written narrative being so bleak. The show nonetheless told the story of a tortured Yossarian and his attempts at discharge from military duty very well. It was the loss of his friends, the cruel twists of fate, and his realization that he should have all just left his misguided interventions to fate (in the last 10s of the last episode) that got to me.

Perhaps it was also the long day. My mother was told she likely has cancer, some minutes after her doctor reiterated his conclusions, the same ones he advised a week earlier. She's home now because the doctors need to meet and decide which organs to inspect at length and how to do so. Apart from this proverbial smack in the gut, she's about the same as before we went into the A&E. Plot twist eh. 

Time for a deep breath. And a wipe across the eyes. Time for bed. 

Missing For 5 Years

I can't quite explain it. It's been nearly 5 years since I wrote here. So much wasted time. So much misdirected creative energy. And so much has changed, for me and for the world. I need to come back to writing.

Apple Store - Wasted Opportunity For Singapore

Finally, Apple opened an official store in Singapore last week. Predictably along Orchard Road. Thousands arrived on opening day to pay homage to the brand, had multiple more Instagram and Snapchat shots taken, probably not buy anything, and left. 

Is the store going to bring an injection of buzz to unabashedly boring shopping street? Maybe, likely not. Why? Apple used to be APPLE and now it's just apple. Half the country has iPhones and the other half are watching movies on their iPads. I've got a MacBook. The problem with ubiquity is that it kills novelty. Hermes Birkin bags go for a truckload of cash because there are so few of them. It's probably not Apple's dream to not be mass market but clearly they've got to keep their innovation pipeline bursting at the rivets to keep our short attention spans clued into their latest gizmos. And that's hard to do. $100 Japanese fruit of the same moniker would get more buzz. 

So who's at the store buying up stuff? Tourists. Likely Indonesian and Chinese. Our affluent neighbours to the south have about 50 flights a day between Jakarta and this little red dot to choose from, and shopping, concerts and quick getaways have become mere day trips. There are too many Chinese mainlanders who want to get their hands on the latest gizmos to resell back home. It's just a weird consequence of too much demand for the coolest toys among a population of 1+ billion, all trying to be cool. Even those barely getting by seem to want to show off - a new phone, a real Apple, not a China made rip-off - regardless how broke they become. What's even more awesome for our tourists is the GST rebate they get back at the airport. No lucky 7% for the locals. 

My gripe is the missed opportunity for Apple and our gahmen to do something great together, for the big Singapore picture. Imagine if the gahmen gave Apple a nice plot of land to build a magnificent glass house that would glitter and be resplendent enough to mesmerise those drawn to things bright and shiny. To build a standout. With a clever twist - place where no one would expect it to be. Not antiquated Orchard Road but somewhere where more attention is due, somewhere the gahmen wants people to look at and also be drawn to. Say Jurong East, the second CBD. Shocking at first thought I believe. Incredulous even. Not in Apple's image you might think. My take is Apple hasn't done much lately to stun anyone. Apple used to be APPLE because not many people had the shiny fruit. Definitely the folks strutting up and down Orchard Road would be too familiar with and blasé about the brand. But perhaps the folks in the boondocks or more politely, the heartlands, would appreciate a slice of the Apple pie in their neck of the woods. An Apple cube in Jurong or Woodlands or Tampines would attract the attention. MNCs and even luxury brands which may want to follow suit and stake some ground to roll in the average Joe's dough. A wasted opportunity to stir up much needed noise. A store up north would have attracted rich Johoreans to come spend their ringgit here too and scuttle back across all before lunchtime. 

Unless rents come down, I don't think the Apple Store at Knightsbridge is going to last 5 years I fear. Singaporeans are going to get their devices online or from their package deal peddling telcos. And tourists won't be enough to keep the coffers plump. Let's see.