Who Would Want To Block The Suez?

So the Suez Canal was blocked a little while ago. Unintentionally. 

That got me thinking about who would want to block it on purpose. I gave a short response to this thought on Twitter to a post by someone I follow. I shall expand on it here. 

Disruptor 1 - Egyptian Islamists 

They’ve had a grudge against government and what better way to hold the country hostage than a disruption to 8% of world trade and a dent in the port fee coffers. That’s a possible loss to the more than USD$5 billion ships pay in fees annually to use to the man-made passage (1). Large money at stake - 1.5% of the country's GDP. 

Disruptor 2 - Port authorities along the Cape of Good Hope route

For the sake of conspiracy, I take the ‘who would benefit from a Suez block’ line of thinking. If the goods need to go, they’ve gotta go. The shipping route around Africa could use a kick in the pants, one that would add jobs and opportunities. So a schemer in any major port along this old skull (like 1800s old) southern route could be tempted to take advantage of a break in the Suez. 

Disruptor 3 - New Silk Road fans

If plans for the new Silk Road got underway for real, where mega long trains could ship good between East Asia and Europe cost-effectively, this would displace the need for large ships to set sail for the same purpose. It’s probably trickier to implement than it sounds. In any case, a halt to the Suez would first send nautical traffic down south around Africa first, while any increased momentum in an epic East-West railway service took a foothold and flourished. Once again, it would be about the numbers and speed of delivery. Apparently, a freight train can take only 18 days to get from Yiwu, 300km south of Shanghai, to London in 18 days. (2). A conventional seaborne freighter would take a month or so to make the trip. Well, well, well. 

Disruptor 4 - Anti globalists, perhaps

I’m sure there are people out there who have suffered because their jobs have been shipped to India, China or another country with a far cheaper source of labour. They might be angry at their ex-employers, their governments and the people who took their employment. They might seek some pleasure in the disruption of global trade via the Suez. The backlash could be aimed at countries like China, whose economy continues to burgeon at relatively remarkable rates. A prolonged break in their usual trade flow, with more expensive alternatives to follow, could elicit a celebration among these disruptors. 

Alright, it all now sounds like the basis of a movie with James Bond or Johnny English swooping in to save the day. I’m glad things have got back on their feet and I wish the Suez and Egyptians well. (Though this 2016 article doesn’t seem to portray them in a good light - https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160303-cheap-oil-is-taking-shipping-routes-back-to-the-1800s)

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal_Authority#Revenues

(1 plus) Suez fees calculator - https://www.wilhelmsen.com/tollcalculators/suez-toll-calculator/

(2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yiwu%E2%80%93London_railway_line